Ahern Advisory And 2013 Economic Predictions

I am constantly asked for my economic predictions for 2013; and my predictions are based upon my research.

Phoenix, AZ (prHWY.com) January 4, 2013 - I am constantly asked for my economic predictions for 2013; and my predictions are based upon my research.

The magic question is, how far is the administration going to go in rewriting the rules?
It is a very high‐anxiety question for businesses, but the reality is there are dozens of new rules coming and you better be prepared for them.

* Much of the focus will be on the workplace;

* In general, more penalties and citations from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.

According to The Kiplinger Report, there is going to be more burden on employers to find and fix workplace hazards. Firms are going to see this as a way to address ergonomics after Congress "nixed" an earlier rule.

Do not forget the Department of Labor rules are going to broaden in reference to record keeping and hiring practices. Specifically there is going to be goals for employing people with disabilities and disclosing how pay is computed.

Big changes will be coming in advance of the 2014 implementation of the Health Care law. I presume all companies know that they are going to have to pay a penalty for workers who are not covered by health insurance plans, but you are going to have to get involved in the details. One of the questions is, do you have to provide dependent coverage?

You also have to learn what you must tell your workers about Insurance Exchanges and Federal Subsidies to help some workers pay for insurance. March 1st is going to be the deadline for sending notices to workers, but it's my understanding that Washington is trying to push it back somewhat.

Let's not forget tougher rules from the Transportation Department. Next year there is going to be a "boat load" of financial and corporate restrictions covering the waterfront for more disclosure of executive compensation to helping small firms raise capital.

If you think 2013 is going to be bad, you can bank on even more regulatory rewrites in 2014. The question is, is there any good news? Yes, there is! Do not expect short‐term interest rates to shift much more over the coming year. They won't move as long as the Federal Reserve maintains the status quo. But that also means you are going to earn about 1% on your CD's which certainly is not going to keep up with inflation or assist you in planning for your retirement.

The trucking industry, although it is going to have its peaks and valleys in 2013, should do relatively well if we stay focused: practice expense reduction and have "a plan".

The rebounding housing market will bring added home improvement work that should impact trucking. Acquisitions will continue to heat up in 2013, and the tech giants will toss around cash for fast growing social networks with well‐established audiences.

In the trucking industry, there will be continued consolidation from various sectors of the market.

* Medium sized trucking/logistics companies will be looking to expand their "operating footprint" to sustain growth;

* Large transportation/logistics companies will be looking to acquire additional market share to support their already large operating network, and private equity firms that have cash, will need to invest over the next year.

The above statistics support the fact that trucking should do well, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the economy is improving. I am constantly hearing that housing is on a rebound, but the question is, is housing on a rebound because we feel confident in the economy, or is housing industry rebounding simply because we have more new households, and the truth of the matter is that you can count 1 million new households in 2012, which was well above the average 570,000 per year that was created from 2007 to 2011.

So, as new households come into the "marketplace", they are looking for a place to own or rent. That is not necessarily an indication that the
economy is improving, it is simply an indication that a need has presented itself; but whatever the reason, we should embrace it because it is
going to offer our industry more product to deliver.

In reference to hauling liquefied natural gas my research indicates that the US is going to become one of the top exporters of liquefied natural gas. There is a government ruling that clears the way for companies to request export licenses that will allow excess natural gas to be shipped to Japan where prices are steep and other countries.

It is my understanding the approval process will take a few years, but by 2020 1 trillion to 2 trillion cubic feet of gas will be exported - 4% to 8% of yearly projection. That certainly will stimulate the economy and it certainly will create opportunities; the gas boom will provide a steady market for another commodity, which is sand.

Sand is a vital component in hydraulic fracturing used to unlock shale deposits. Drilling already accounts for 40% of all industrial sand use, and that share will grow. That means that states such as MN, WI and IL should recognize some of that windfall because the best sand for gas exploration comes from those states.

In closing, my predictions are slow growing GDP of slightly over 2%; little change through mid 2013 on interest rates; inflation rising slowly; unemployment climbing not declining; and diesel hovering around $95 a barrel; property rent, both commercial and residential increasing; driver shortages will continue to impact our industry, and trucking will experience further consolidation.

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Tag Words: trucking software

Categories: Transportation

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http://www.ahern-ltd.com/
Mr.Andre Ahern
CEO
2198 E Camelback Rd Suite 210
Phoenix, AZ
USA, 85016
PH: 602-242-1030
Claudia@ahern-ltd.com

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